A drug company is considering investing $100 million today to bring a weight loss pill to the market. At the end of one year, the firm will know the payoff: there is a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a high price and generate $37 million dollars per year of profit forever and a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a low price and generate $1 million per year of profit forever. The interest rate is 10%. Suppose the firm decides to wait one year to determine whether the pill will sell at a high price or a low price. The firm will not invest if it learns that the pill will sell at a low price. What is the option value of waiting one year to make the investment? | |||||||||
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The answer is $17.44 million. For detailed solution please refer the image attached
A drug company is considering investing $100 million today to bring a weight loss pill to...
. You are the manager of a small pharmaceutical company, Advent Pharmaceuticals, Inc. that received a patent on a new drug four years ago. Despite strong sales ($200 million last year) and a low marginal cost of producing the product ($0.50 per pill), your company has yet to show profit from selling the drug. This is, in part, due to the high upfront costs of about $2 billion of developing (R&D) and obtaining FDA approval. As an economist working for...
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