Question

Using the table below, find the average duration, the minimum duration, and the maximum duration of expansions in the United States since 1929 Recession Duration onths) Duration of subsequent expansion onths) 50 Highest Unesployment Rate (X) 24.9 19.0 3.9 5.9 5.5 6.8 Change in real GDP (3) 28.8 -5.5 RES Peak date (beginning) Aug. 1929 May 1937 Feb. 1945 Nov. 1948 July 1953 Aug 1957 Apr 1960 Dec. 1969 Nov 1973 Jan. 1980 July 1981 July 1990 Mar 2001 Dec. 2007 Trough date (end) Mar. 1933 June 1938 Oct 1945 Oct 1949 May 1954 Apr. 1958 Feb. 1961 Nov. 1970 Mar. 1975 July 1980 Nov 1982 Mar 1991 Nov 2001 June 2009 6.7 8.5 7.6 IIIIIII 10.0 Instruction: Enter your responses as whole numbers Average duration: Minimum duration: Maximum duration: Are expansions getting longer or shorter on average over timek ee yes Is there any tendency for long expansions to be followed by long recessions? Cike to see

Answer 1

Solution:-

Average Duration = Sum of Duration of Subsequent expansion / no of Duration

                                      = 50 + 80 + 37 + 45 + 39 + 24 + 106 + 36 + 58 + 12 + 92 + 120 + 73 / 13

                                      = 772 / 13

                                      = 59.38

Average duration = 59 months (rounded)

Minimum Duration = 12 Months

Maximum Duration = 120 Months

• The first 6 expansions in the table are average less than 46 months each. And the last six averages are 76 months each. Hence they are getting longer.
• The two longest recessions each of 16 months are proceeded by expansions of 36 months and 12 months.