Question

A stock technical analyst uses smoothing methods to predict stock prices. The following table contains the monthly price information for Walmart.

Date	Price
11/30/2018	95.62
12/31/2018	91.71
1/31/2019	94.35
2/28/2019	97.46
3/29/2019	96.54
4/30/2019	101.80
5/31/2019	100.94
6/28/2019	109.95
7/31/2019	109.84
8/30/2019	114.26
9/30/2019	118.68
10/31/2019	117.26

What is the predicted share price for August 30, 2019 if this technical analyst uses an exponential smoothing method with a smoothing constant of .7 and a 5-month moving average as the initial forecast share price for April 30, 2019?

	A.	$107.14
	B.	$111.89
	C.	$116.88
	D.	$109.03

Answer 1

A B C D E F Forecast Date 11/30/2018 12/31/2018 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/29/2019 4/30/2019 5/31/2019 6/28/2019 7/31/2019 8/30/2019 9/30/2019 10/31/2019 Price 95.62 91.71 94.35 97.46 96.54 101.8 100.94 109.95 109.84 114.26 118.68 117.26 95.14 99.80 100.60 107.14 109.03 Predicted share price for August 30, 2019 = $109.03

EXCEL FORMULA:

в Forecast Date Price 11/30/2018 95.62 12/31/2018 91.71 1/31/2019 94.35 2/28/2019 97.46 3/29/2019 96.54 4/30/2019 101.8 5/31/2019 100.94 6/28/2019 109.95 7/31/2019 109.84 8/30/2019 114.26 9/30/2019 118.68 10/31/2019 117.26 =(C3+04+C5+C6+C7)/5 =C8*0.7+D8*0.3 =C9*0.7+D9*0.3 =C10*0.7+D10*0.3 =C11*0.7+D11*0.3 Predicted share price for August 30, 2019 = $109.03