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Valuation specialists or analysts often estimate risk premiums by looking at historical data. In the United...

Valuation specialists or analysts often estimate risk premiums by looking at historical data. In the United States, for example, there is a wealth of historical information by which to make such estimates. What are the perils of historical premiums?

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Answer #1

Following are the perils of historical premiums :-

1) Historical risk premium estimates can be noisy: Historical risk premiums are subjected to substantial standard errors, even in case of long time periods of history.

2) Survivorship bias: Using historical data to estimate risk premiums often leads to survivorship bias.

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