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How does “expectations theory” explain the fact that yield curves tend to have upward slope when...

  1. How does “expectations theory” explain the fact that yield curves tend to have upward slope when short rates are low and downward slope when short rates are high?
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Depending on the present longer-term rates of interest rates, the Expectations Theory predicts the future rate of short-term interest. The Expectations theory states that an individual can profit with the same amount of interest returns out of a one-year investment in two subsequent years as compared to a two-year investment decision. This theory takes the future investment forecast to help the investors to make their call on the amount of investment. According to the expectations theory, the future return in the shorter period are sometimes over-rated, thus the yield curve of the investors may result to be not properly accrued. Let us take an example to illustrate how it explains the concept of yield curve. Let us suppose that in a particular bond market, the investors are provided with two varied options, one option is to invest in a one-year bond for which the interest rate is fixed at 9%, and the second option is a two-year bond period for which the investor would be paid an interest equal to 10%. The expectations theory states that the interest return of the investor from the two-year bond period will be lesser than that from the one-year bond period. For the investment to be profitable in a two-year period, the interest rate should be somewhere near 12%.

                                          Therefore, the expectations theory stresses on the fact that in the short term, the yield or return from a particular investment for an investor would be more than as compared to the investment done on a longer bond period. The yield to be higher in a longer period, should be accompanied by a much higher interest rate. This theory has been contradicted at may level and may shortcomings have been reported in this theory, however, this theory still holds good ground when expecting the future returns on=f an invert in the current investment market.

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