Question

The large wave of immigration from Mexico to the United States that began four decades ago, most of it unauthorized, has to a large degree ended. As a report from the Pew Hispanic Center confirms, net migration from Mexico to the United States sank to about zero in the past five years. Did the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) play a role? Yes and no. Actually, the number of Mexicans living illegally in the United States shot up from 2.5 million in 1995, the year after NAFTA took effect, to 11 million in 2013. The main reason was the booming U.S. economy, which generated huge demands for labor just as the share of Mexico’s population aged 15 to 39, prime migration years, was peaking at about 75 percent. Migration plummeted after 2005 because of reduced U.S. demand for labor and the slowing of Mexican population growth but also because NAFTA started to pay off in the form of dynamic new export industries in Mexico, such as automobile manufacturing. Do you think there will be continued decline in immigration of people from Mexico to the United States in future years because of the NAFTA agreement, or will the immigration decline (or potential increase) be due to factors that are not tied to NAFTA?

Answer 1

No North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA) has actually increased immigration of Mexican to United States after its implementation due to demand for labor but immigration dropped due to many other reasons, i.e. Great recession of 2008 which has wiped out lakhs of jobs and decrease in demand for labor due to slow down of US economy and due to that many Mexican immigrants returned to their country at that time and also due to the shift in deportation policy which paved the way for deportation as well as apprehension at the border and also due to improvement in the Mexican economy and increase in employment in Mexico.

Yes there will be continued decline of immigration of Mexican people to the United States but due to other reasons than NAFTA and these are end of temporary protection of illegal immigrants and fear of deportation and apprehensions at the border and growth of Mexican economy and this has seen continued decline in the immigration of Mexican people to the United States and this trend will continue in future also and there is decline seen in illegal immigrants who are staying in United States for five years or less due to shift in deportation policies of both Democrats and Republicans and apprehensions at the border.