you have a portfolio comprising of 40 percent of Stock A and 60 percent of stock B. If the risk-free rate is 4.0%, what is the portfolio risk premium?
Economy State Probability E(R)-A E(R)-B
Boom 0.40 20% 14%
Normal 0.50 11% 9%
Recession 0.10 -23% -5%
Solution:-
Share of stock A in total portfolio= 40% or 0.4
Share of stock B in total portfolio= 60% or 0.6
Economy | Probability | Expected return- A | Expected return- B | Expected return- Portfolio |
Boom | 0.4 | 20% | 14% | (20%*0.4+14%*0.6)= 16.4% |
Normal | 0.5 | 11% | 9% | (11%*0.4+9%*0.6)= 9.8% |
Recession | 0.1 | -23% | -5% | (-23%*0.4 - 5%*0.6)= -12.2% |
Based on above, the expected return of total portfolio is as follows:
Expected return (Portfolio)= E(R) Boom*Prob. of Boom + E(R) Normal*Prob. of Normal + E(R) Recession*Prob. of Recession
Expected return (Portfolio)= 16.4%*0.4 + 9.8%*0.5 + (-12.2%*0.1) = 10.24%
Therefore, portfolio risk premium= Expected return (portfolio)-risk free rate = 10.24%-4% = 6.24%
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