Question

Use Exhibit 2.1 and estimate FEDEX 2016 Total Sale via the top down approach & the following assumptions:

I. Only 2 companies in this industry: FEDEX & UPS

ii. The industry 2016 projected annual growth rate is assumed to the geometric average of 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2012 industry annual growth rate.

iii. FEDEX plan to have 0.5% higher market share in 2016 compare to 2015 market share (i.e UPS will have lower market share in 2016)

EXHIBIT 2.1 Revenues for FedEx and UPS by Business and Geography Segment (Millions) FedEx 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Geography U.S. Domestic Revenue International Revenue 24.852 9.882 27.461 11,843 29,837 12,843 30,948 13,339 32,259 13,308 34,216 13,237 Business FedEx Express FedEx Ground FedEx Freight FedEx Services 21,555 7.439 4,321 1,419 24,581 8,485 4,911 1,327 26,515 9,573 5,282 1,310 27,171 10,578 5.401 1,137 27.121 11.617 5,757 1,072 27.239 12,984 6.191 1,039 UPS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Geography U.S. Domestic Revenue 36,795 39.347 40,428 41,772 43,840 45.309 International Revenue 12.750 13.758 13,699 13,666 14,392 13,054 Business U.S. Domestic Package Next-Day Air 5,835 6,229 6,412 6.443 6,581 6,570 Deferred 2.975 3,299 3,392 3.437 3,672 3,903 Ground 20.932 22.189 23,052 24.194 25,598 26,274 International Package 11,133 12.249 12,124 12,429 12,988 12.149 Supply Chain & Freight 8,670 9,139 9,147 8,935 9,393 9,467 *FedEx Services provides back-office support to FedEx's three transportation segments and printing and retail support to customers through FedEx Office. Data source: Company SEC filings.

Answer 1

Solution:

We need to find the total sales of Fedex in 2016 and in order to do that we need to find the industry revenue in 2016 and based on the market share we can find the revenue of Fedex.

Step 1: Find the total revenue of Fedex and UPS and then Industry revenue.

Step 2: Find the geometric average by using formula Geometric average = (1+r1)*(1+r2)........^(1/n) - 1

Step 3: Find the revenue of industry in 2016 by using geometric average growth

Step 4: Increase the market share of Fedex by 0.5% and find the revenue

1 Total sales 2 Fedex L 3 UPS | 4 Industry 5 Growth 2010 34734 49545 84279 I 2011 39304 53105 92409 9.65% 2012 42680 54127 96807 4.76% 2013 44287 55438 99725 3.01% 2014 4 5567 582321 103799 4.09% Market Market share in share in Revenue 2015 2015 Formula 2016 Formula in 2016 47453| 44.84% =G2/$G$ 4 45.34% =H2+0.5% 49635.04 =12*$L$4 58363 55.16%|=G3/$G$ 4 5 4.66% =H3-0.5% 59826.27 = 33*$L$4 105816 109461.3 =G4*(1+G7)! 1.94% Geometric 7 average 3.44% = (1+G5)*(1+F5)*(1+5)*(1+05))^(1/4)-1

Revenue of Fedex = 49635.04