Markov Chains
Consider the Markov chain with transition matrix P = [ 0 1
1 0].
1) Compute several powers of P by hand. What do you notice?
2) Argue that a Markov chain with P as its transition matrix cannot stabilize unless both initial probabilities are 1/2.
1) Observe that , hence the order of P is 2. Even powers of P are I and odd powers of P is P.
2) The Markov chain stabilizes when
We need to find such that and
Hence the solution is . But , therefore is the only solution.
Markov Chains Consider the Markov chain with transition matrix P = [ 0 1 1 0]....
A Markov chain X0, X1, X2,... has transition matrix 012 0 0.3 0.2 0.5 P = 1 0.5 0.1 0.4 .2 0.3 0.3 0.4 (i) Determine the conditional probabilities P(X1 = 1,X2 = 0|X0 = 0),P(X3 = 2|X1 = 0). (ii) Suppose the initial distribution is P(X0 = 1) = P(X0 = 2) = 1/2. Determine the probabilities P(X0 = 1, X1 = 1, X2 = 2) and P(X3 = 0). 2. A Markov chain Xo, Xi, X2,. has...
Markov Chains: Consider the following transition matrix. Current month Next month Card used Card not used .8 .2 .3 Card used Card not used The columns give probabilities a credit card will be used in the next month given that is used or not used in the current month (represented by rows). For example, the probability that a credit card is used next month, given that it was used in the current month is .8 or 80%. And, for example,...
Consider a Markov chain with state space S = {1,2,3,4} and transition matrix P = where (a) Draw a directed graph that represents the transition matrix for this Markov chain. (b) Compute the following probabilities: P(starting from state 1, the process reaches state 3 in exactly three-time steps); P(starting from state 1, the process reaches state 3 in exactly four-time steps); P(starting from state 1, the process reaches states higher than state 1 in exactly two-time steps). (c) If the...
Consider a three-state continuous-time Markov chain in which the transition rates are given by The states are labelled 1, 2 and 3. (a) Write down the transition matrix of the corresponding embedded Markov chain as well as the transition rates out of each of the three states. (b) Use the symmetry of Q to argue that this setting can be reduced to one with only 2 states. (c) Use the results of Problem 1 to solve the backward equations of...
Consider a three-state continuous-time Markov chain in which the transition rates are given by The states are labelled 1, 2 and 3. (a) Write down the transition matrix of the corresponding embedded Markov chain as well as the transition rates out of each of the three states. (b) Use the symmetry of Q to argue that this setting can be reduced to one with only 2 states. (c) Use the results of Problem 1 to solve the backward equations of...
Let Xn be a Markov chain with state space {0,1,2}, the initial probability vector and one step transition matrix a. Compute. b. Compute. 3. Let X be a Markov chain with state space {0,1,2}, the initial probability vector - and one step transition matrix pt 0 Compute P-1, X, = 0, x, - 2), P(X, = 0) b. Compute P( -1| X, = 2), P(X, = 0 | X, = 1) _ a. 3. Let X be a Markov chain...
Consider the Markov chain with state space {0, 1,2} and transition matrix(a) Suppose Xo-0. Find the probability that X2 = 2. (b) Find the stationary distribution of the Markov chain
Let Xo, X1,... be a Markov chain with transition matrix 1(0 1 0 P 2 0 0 1 for 0< p< 1. Let g be a function defined by g(x) =亻1, if x = 1, if x = 2.3. , Let Yn = g(x,), for n 0. Show that Yo, Xi, is not a Markov chain.
2. The transition probabilities for several temporally homogeneous Markov chains with states 1,.,n appear below. For each: . Sketch a small graphical diagram of the chain (label the states and draw the arrows, but you do not need to label the transition probabilities) . Determine whether there are any absorbing states, and, if so, list them. » List the communication classes for the chain . Classify the chain as irreducible or not . Classify each state as recurrent or transient....
Consider a Markov chain with state space S = {1, 2, 3, 4} and transition matrix P= where (a) Draw a directed graph that represents the transition matrix for this Markov chain. (b) Compute the following probabilities: P(starting from state 1, the process reaches state 3 in exactly three time steps); P(starting from state 1, the process reaches state 3 in exactly four time steps); P(starting from state 1, the process reaches states higher than state 1 in exactly two...