Question

3.22 Exit poll: Edison Research gathered exit poll results from several sources for the Wisconsin recall election of Scott Walker. They found that 52% of the respondents voted in favor of Scott Walker. Additionally, they estimated that of those who did vote in favor for Scott Walker, 33% had a college degree, while 43% of those who voted against Scott Walker had a college degree. Suppose we randomly sampled a person who participated in the exit poll and found that he had a college degree. What is the probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker? (please round to 4 decimal places)

Answer 1

Let Event A = who voted in favor of scott walker Event B - College student. Given : PCA) = 0.52 , PCANB) = 0.33 PCAMB)= 0.43 we want probability that, P(AIB) = P(ANB). PCB) But PCB) = P(ANB) + P CANB) = 0.33 +0.43 = 0.76 .: PCA1B) = 0.33 0.76 0.4342