Question

Racentty, you wara assignad to manage a projact tor your compary You hav constructed a natwnrk dagram depching the vanous activites in the project (ahown below to the nght In addtion, you have asked your taam to ashmate the amount of time that they would expact each of the actaties to take. Thair esponses are shown in the feliewing table ime Estimatas (days Most Likaly Activity Optimistic Pess 11 Fmah Start C a axpacted completion bme ot the proct a Weat is: The expected comnpletion time is avs, (Enler ver reswen se es on inlecer) b. What is the probability of completinrg the project in 19 days? Refcr to the ardard norma takls The prohahlty of compating the project in 19 days i Entar vour aspanse ondad to faur dacima piaces Whe is t probabliy of cumpleting the projeu in 15 days? The prcbablity of compieting the project in 15 days is. Enter your rospanse rounaod to four docimal places.)

Answer 1

Answer a: expected completion time of project= 17 days

Answer b: 89.25%

Answer c: 10.74%

Activity	Optimistic time-a	Expected completion time-m	Pessimistic time-b	Expected time= (a+4*m+ b)/6	Variance, (sigma)^2= (b-a/6)^2
A	4	7	10	7.00	1.00
B	4	7	11	7.17
C	4	7	8	6.67
D	2	4	5	3.83	0.25
E	3	6	10	6.17	1.36
				total project variance=	2.61
step 1	we will find the variance of the tasks which lie on critical pathA-D-E
step 2	mean project time (u) of critical path is=				17.00
step 3	given completion time is 19				19
step 4	standard deviation= sqrt(variance)= sqrt(2.61)=				1.616
step 5	because Z= (given completion time- u/)/standard deviation				1.24
step 6	P(z<1.24)=			0.8925	89.25%

step 7	given completion time is 19				15
step 8	standard deviation= sqrt(variance)= sqrt(2.61)=				1.616
step 9	because Z= (given completion time- u/)/standard deviation				-1.24
step 10	P(z<-1.24)=			0.1074	10.74%