BestDeal Inc. has just paid dividend of $5.The dividend is expected to increase at 16% for the
first 15 years, -6% for the next 10 years and then 2% forever. The required rate of return is 12% for the first 8 years and 20% thereafter. Find its share price today.
Share Price today=present Value of Future Cash Flows | ||||||
Present Value (PV) of Cash Flow: | ||||||
(Cash Flow)/((1+i)^N) | ||||||
i=Discount Rate=Required rate of return | ||||||
N=Year of Cash Flow | ||||||
D0 | Current Dividend | $5 | ||||
D1 | Dividend in Year1=D0*(1+0.16)=5*1.16 | $5.80 | ||||
Dn+1 | Dividend in Year(n+1)=Dn*(1+0.16) | |||||
(For n< or =14 | ||||||
D16=D15*(1-0.06)=D15*0.94 | ||||||
For n>or=16 and n< or=24 | ||||||
Dn+1=Dn*0.94 | ||||||
D26=D25*(1+0.02) | ||||||
For n>or=25 | ||||||
Dn+1=Dn*1.02 | ||||||
Year wise Dividend is given below: | ||||||
Year | Dividend | |||||
D1 | 1 | $5.80 | ||||
D2 | 2 | $6.73 | ||||
D3 | 3 | $7.80 | ||||
D4 | 4 | $9.05 | ||||
D5 | 5 | $10.50 | ||||
D6 | 6 | $12.18 | ||||
D7 | 7 | $14.13 | ||||
D8 | 8 | $16.39 | ||||
D9 | 9 | $19.01 | ||||
D10 | 10 | $22.06 | ||||
D11 | 11 | $25.59 | ||||
D12 | 12 | $29.68 | ||||
D13 | 13 | $34.43 | ||||
D14 | 14 | $39.94 | ||||
D15 | 15 | $46.33 | ||||
D16 | 16 | $43.55 | ||||
D17 | 17 | $40.94 | ||||
D18 | 18 | $38.48 | ||||
D19 | 19 | $36.17 | ||||
D20 | 20 | $34.00 | ||||
D21 | 21 | $31.96 | ||||
D22 | 22 | $30.04 | ||||
D23 | 23 | $28.24 | ||||
D24 | 24 | $26.55 | ||||
D25 | 25 | $24.95 | ||||
D26 | 26 | $25.45 | ||||
Required rate of Return in year 26 onwards | 0.2 | 20% | ||||
Dividend Growth rate from year 26 onwards | 0.02 | 2% | ||||
P25 | Price at end of Year 25=D26/(0.2-0.02)=25.45/0.18 | $141.40 | ||||
Required return from year 9 onwards | 20% | 0.2 | ||||
Let us Calculated Present Value of cash flows at end of year 8 | ||||||
Consider Year 8 as 0year and year 9 asyear1 and so on | ||||||
N | CF | PV=CF/(1.2^N) | ||||
Year | Cash Flow | Present value at end of year8 | ||||
D9 | 1 | $19.01 | 15.84567198 | |||
D10 | 2 | $22.06 | 15.31748291 | |||
D11 | 3 | $25.59 | 14.80690015 | |||
D12 | 4 | $29.68 | 14.31333681 | |||
D13 | 5 | $34.43 | 13.83622558 | |||
D14 | 6 | $39.94 | 13.37501806 | |||
D15 | 7 | $46.33 | 12.92918413 | |||
D16 | 8 | $43.55 | 10.1278609 | |||
D17 | 9 | $40.94 | 7.933491039 | |||
D18 | 10 | $38.48 | 6.21456798 | |||
D19 | 11 | $36.17 | 4.868078251 | |||
D20 | 12 | $34.00 | 3.813327963 | |||
D21 | 13 | $31.96 | 2.987106905 | |||
D22 | 14 | $30.04 | 2.339900409 | |||
D23 | 15 | $28.24 | 1.832921987 | |||
D24 | 16 | $26.55 | 1.43578889 | |||
D25 | 17 | $24.95 | 1.124701297 | |||
P25 | 17 | $141.40 | 6.373307349 | |||
SUM | $149.47 | |||||
Present value in Year 8=Price in year8=P8 | $149.47 | |||||
Required return in Year 1 to8 | 12% | 0.12 | ||||
PRESENT VALUE AT END OF YEAR 0 | ||||||
N | CF | PV=CF/(1.12^N) | ||||
Year | Cash Flow | Present value at end of year0 | ||||
D1 | 1 | $5.80 | 5.178571429 | |||
D2 | 2 | $6.73 | 5.363520408 | |||
D3 | 3 | $7.80 | 5.555074708 | |||
D4 | 4 | $9.05 | 5.753470234 | |||
D5 | 5 | $10.50 | 5.958951314 | |||
D6 | 6 | $12.18 | 6.171771003 | |||
D7 | 7 | $14.13 | 6.392191396 | |||
D8 | 8 | $16.39 | 6.620483946 | |||
P8 | 8 | $149.47 | 60.37039404 | |||
SUM | $107.36 | |||||
SHARE PRICE TODAY | $107.36 | |||||
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