Question

There has been a great deal of controversy over the last several years regarding what types of surveillance are appropriate to prevent terrorism. Suppose a particular surveillance system has a 98% chance of correctly identifying a future terrorist and a 99.8% chance of correctly identifying someone who is not a future terrorist. If there are 1,000 future terrorists in a population of 200 million, and one of these 200 million is randomly selected, scrutinized by the system, and identified as a future terrorist, what is the probability that he/she actually is a future terrorist? (Round your answer to six decimal places.)

Does the value of this probability make you uneasy about using the surveillance system? Explain.

Since the probability is less than 0.05, it is likely that people "flagged" as terrorists would be actual terrorists in this scenario.Since the probability is greater than 0.05, it is unlikely that people "flagged" as terrorists would be actual terrorists in this scenario.    Since the probability is greater than 0.05, it is likely that people "flagged" as terrorists would be actual terrorists in this scenario.Since the probability is less than 0.05, it is unlikely that people "flagged" as terrorists would be actual terrorists in this scenario