Why would long term predictions be highly variable and less precise. Discuss in the context of the decision tree.
Long term predictions are often less precise and highly variable because of the reason of the lead time of these predictions. As the lead time of the forecasting methods and predictions increases, the accuracy of the prediction decreases thus also decreases how precise the prediction would be. Once the accuracy is decreased, the variability of getting it changes and the uncertainity level increases because according to the decision tree concept, for predicting the long term courses of action, we start from the root of the tree. We compare the values for the root attribute to the record's attribute. Continuing this basis, we follow the branch which is corresponding to that value and thus reach to our next nod in this process of decision making. As the time of the prediction increases, it becomes harder to evaluate and jump to next nod by the comparison basis. Thus, variability starts arising as the decisions go longer.
Why would long term predictions be highly variable and less precise. Discuss in the context of...
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