Question

[18-22The following table shows monthly actual and forecast air passenger demand on Stockton Airlines ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR RSFE MAD 180 TIME PERIOD Jan Feb Mar Apr 2 7 210 130 190 NA 2 30 2 2 NA TRACKING SIGNAL -10 2 ? NA 2 2 NA NA Using exponential smoothing (0.5) what will be the air passenger demand in April? O A 16725 8.171.25 c. 17425 0.17625 QUESTION 19 25 points In March, what is the running sum of the forecast errors (RSFE)? OB-75 OGO QUESTION 20 25 points In March, what is the mean absolute delation (MAD? A 30 27 B. 40.83 OC. 50.12 O 0.60.33 QUESTION 21 2.5 points In Feb, is the tracking signal within the acceptable limits (+4MAD.)? O Ayes OB.no none of the above QUESTION 22 2.5 points In March, is the tracking signal within the acceptable limits ( 4MADs)? O A yes B. DO C none of the above

Answer 1

Sol. The forecast at time. It is equal to a weighted average between the most recent the previous farcast & Hei! = xyz + (1-2) ŷ obserration YT Gitilat TT-1 Horie, I Let it =.O as Jain t=) :-) Feb a=015 + = 2 ) March t=3 = April 015.(210)+(1-015) (180) 180 + 015(36) = 195 Lele 1 Yilo ( Yali = 0;5(130) +(1-015) (195) = 162.5 93)2 015(190)+(1-0.5)(16215) = 176.25 is => JAir pass.demand in aprida 176.25 option D cscanned with CamScanner

① we've got from fart On Time (T) forecast (fx. Error R$FE Actual (Yt) 210 180 Jan (ol igs 13 DE Ifeb (1) 30 Ro - 65 RG 27.5 R2 N/A N/A 162.5 190 176.25 Mer (2) Aper. (3) N/A ES; RISE Rain "RSEE Ro= 30 - 35 - Ri= 30-65 4.5 7.5 R2 = 2715-35. RE -715 "In March, RSFE B loftion sty ni ( MAD - {s:1/ )= M; My M2 M3 represent MAD in het Mo, Jan, feb, mar & Aper resp. Then, for April 30 do 30 3 3 3 Sito = +65 +30 3 3 M2 = dits to 2715 +65 +30 3 3 3. 3 993 Hence, in march, CS Scanned with CamScanner MADE 401133-) oktion B

10 TS Tracking signal - FRISE MAD a for rebis TS = - 35 4715 ř -017368 which is not acceptable, et زما ہی انسانی Inom บ for March, TS = -7.5 40,33 ñ 011 86% > Nosis CScanned with CamScanner
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