If the expected return is 8% and the standard deviation is 1%, you can be 95% confident that next year's return will not be above:
-8%
-10%
-9%
-11%
-6%
Answer is 10%
Expected Return = 8%
Standard Deviation = 1%
95% Confidence Interval = Expected Return - 2 * Standard
Deviation, Expected Return + 2 * Standard Deviation
95% Confidence Interval = 8% - 2 * 1%, 8% + 2 * 1%
95% Confidence Interval = 8% - 2%, 8% + 2%
95% Confidence Interval = 6%, 10%
Therefore, next year’s return will not be above 10%
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