Question

Question 6 Read the statements below. For each of the statements, select TRUE, FALSE or NEI (Not Enough Information) accordingly. When evaluating different forecasting methods, the best option is always the one that gives you the least cumulative forecasted error. The CFE is useful in assessing bias in a forecast. A value greater than 15000 for a Mean Absolute Deviation should be always considered as a large error. In the SMA, a shorter moving average period produces more oscillations but it more closely follows the actual trend. | Using a WMA with n=4 will perform better than a SMA with n=4. | For Exponential Smoothing, if actual demands are stable you should use a large a to lessen effects of short-term changes in demand.

Answer 1

1. TRUE
Yes, the least CFE would be closer to the actual demand.

2. TRUE

CFE values can be both positive and negative and therefore, provides a good consideration for BIAS.

3. FALSE

Depending on the dataset, the value could become a small deviation.

4. TRUE

A shorter n value does not tend to smooth the average demand and therefore, follows the trend more closely.

5. TRUE

A weighted moving average, depending on the weights assigned would tend to follow the demand more closely.

6. FALSE

If the demand is relatively stable, we will use a smaller alpha is more appropriate

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