(a) Exponential forecasting coefficient ? = 0.20,
For Period t, Actual Demand is = At
Forecast = Ft
Exponential Forecast Ft = Ft-1 + ? (At-1 - Ft-1)
Calculating using the above formula -
Period | Demand | Forecast |
1 | 10 | 7.00 |
2 | 8 | 7.60 |
3 | 7 | 7.68 |
4 | 10 | 7.54 |
5 | 12 | 8.04 |
6 | 9 | 8.83 |
7 | 8.86 |
Hence, Forecast for Period 7 = 8.86
(b) MAD is the average of absolute Deviation/Error
Error = Actual Demand - Forecast
Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute Error |
1 | 10 | 7.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
2 | 8 | 7.60 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
3 | 7 | 7.68 | -0.68 | 0.68 |
4 | 10 | 7.54 | 2.46 | 2.46 |
5 | 12 | 8.04 | 3.96 | 3.96 |
6 | 9 | 8.83 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
1.78 | ||||
MAD |
Hence, MAD = 1.78
Question 11 (10 points) a) For the following demand data, use exponential smoothing with alpha =...
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