Question

Using the data below and the SES forecast a=0.3, what is the error for the 3rd week? Week Time Series Value 12.00 13.00 20.00 5.00 Submit Answer format: Number: Round to: 1 decimal places.

Answer 1

Exponential Smoothing Formula Fe = L AL + (1-2) Ft-1 where, it is the forecast demand for weekt x is smoothing constant At-i is the previous period's actual demand It is the previous period's forecast demand Now, According to Question d = 0.3 1-2= 0.7 Week I Time series Value (At) 12:00 (A) 13.00 (A2) 20.00 (A3) 5.00 (A4) using Formula we have Ft = 0.3 A++ + 0 7 Ft-1 F = 0.3 A0 +0.750 No Forecast value fox first period is given so we Assume F = A re F = 12 For 2nd week F2 = 0.3A,+ 0.7A F2 = 0.3 X12 + 0-7 X12 F2 = 3.6+ 8.4 TF2 = 12 1 For 3rd week F3 = 0.3 A₂ + 0.7 F2 F3 = 0.3X1340 7412 F3 = 12.3] For 4th week Fu= 0.3 A3 +0.753 Fy = 0.3x20 + 0 78 12.3 fy = 6 +8.61 Try = 14.61 LILITIBETE I wrt Mage

Error Time series | Ft At- Et week valuda | 12.00 o 113.00 12.00 1 3 20.00 12.30 7.7 4 15.00 114.61 1-9.61 So Error is given by A - Ft For 3rd week Az-Fz 20.00-12.30 =7.7 | Error for 3rd week is 7.7