Question

The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: 

Week Of	Pints Used
August 31	350
September 7	389
September 14	408
September 21	378
September 28	371
October 5	374

a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average =pints (round your response to two decimal places). 

b) Using a 3 -week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.20,0.30, and 0.50, using 0.50 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12=_______ pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order - the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.)

c) If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 350 and α = 0.25, using exponential smoothing, develop the forecast for each of the weeks with the known demand and the forecast for the week of October 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).

Week Of	Pints Used	Forecast for this Date
August 31	350	350
September 7	389	350.00
September 14	408	359.75
September 21	378	◻
September 28	371	◻
October 5	374	◻
October 12	-	◻

Answer 1

a) Using the three period moving average method

F(October 12) = {Actual(September 21) + Actual(September 28) + Actual(October 5)}/3

= (378+371+374)/3

= 374.33

b) Using the 3 week weighted moving average method

F(October 12) = 0.5*Actual(October 5) + 0.3*Actual(September 28) + 0.2*Actual(September 21(

= 0.5*374 + 0.3*371 + 0.2*378

= 373.9

c) using the Exponential Smoothing method

F(September 21) = 0.25*Actual(September 14) + (1-0.25)*F(September 14)

= 0.25*408 + 0.75*359.75

= 371.81

F(September 28) = 0.25*378 + 0.75*371.81

= 373.36

F(October 5) = 0.25*371 + 0.75*373.36

= 372.77

F(October 12) = 0.25*374 + 0.75*372.77

= 373.08