Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Bayes’s Rule. Three prisoners, A, B, and C, are locked in their cells. It is common knowledge that one of them will be executed the next day and the others pardoned. Only the governor knows which one will be executed. Prisoner A askes the guard a favor: "Please ask the governor who will be executed, and then take a message to one of my friends B or C to let him know that he will be pardoned in the morning". The guard agrees, and comes back later and tells A that he gave the pardon message to B. What are A's chances/probability of being executed, given this information? What about C's chances/probability of being executed, given this information and assuming that C learned about B’s pardoning?
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Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Bayes’s Rule. Three prisoners, A, B, and C, are...
Example 5.26:
, B 5.26. Consider the three prisoners scenario described in Example 5.26. Let A and C denote respectively the events that Alice is to be released, Bob is to be released, and Carl is to be released, which we assume to be ec Pr(B) Pr(C)-. Also let J be the event that the jailer tells Aice that Bob is to stay in jail. (a) Compute the values of Pr(B | J), Pr(J | B), and Pr(J | C)...
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5.26. Consider the three prisoners scenario described in Example 5.26. Let A, B, and C denote respectively the events that Alice is to be released, Bob is to be released, and Carl is to be released, which we assume to be equally likely, so Pr(A) Pr(B) Pr(C) = 름. Also let J be the event that the jailer...