Question

Dalgliesh the detective fancies himself a shrewd judge of human nature. In careful tests, it has been discovered that he is right 80 percent of the time about whether a suspect is lying or telling the truth. Dalgliesh says that Jones is lying. The polygraph expert, who is right 100 percent of the time, says that 40 percent of the subjects interviewed by Dagliesh are telling the truth. What is the probability that Jones is lying? Instructions: Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number. Probability that Jones is lying:

Answer 1

solution: T: subject telling tould A dectective identifies as A subject is telling touth P(+) = 0.40 PLA)=0.8 P (A) = 0.8 Now, PITOA P(AC) plas).P119 PLA). P(7) + P(AC). PIT = o.fx 0.6 0.880.6 to 2x0. 4 1 [ 86 %