Question

Question 6 (1 point) Which of the following best reflects the reason why Literary Digest was incorrect in its prediction of the 1936 presidential election? Its readers were asked to guess as to the outcome, rather than offering up their own opinions. It had not obtained a random sample of the population. Its readers were generally wealthy and not reflective of the population at large. Its readers were asked to guess as to the outcome, rather than offering up their own opinions, and it had not obtained a random sample of the population It had not obtained a random sample of the population, and its readers were generally wealthy and not reflective of the population at large.

Answer 1

Option E

The Literary Digest made a fatal error in sampling in 1936. The people they chose to interview were drawn from telephone directories and lists of automobile owners. This oversampled the middle and upper class. It excluded the lower income voters.

Sampling error by the use of telephone directories, automobiles- mostly sampled middle/upper class, thus sample was not representative of population. Another error was timing of questionnaires.The questionnaires were mailed in early September, they did not measure the changes in public opinions as the election drew closer. Another problem was that out of the 10 million people whose names were on the original mailing list, only about 2.4 million responded to the survey. Thus, the size of the sample was about one-fourth of what was originally intended.