Question

1.9.1 Exercise 1 Describe three decision-making situations that you face at least once a year in your life and that involve uncertainty. Describe the sources of uncertainty and your method to come to a decision. For example, you may have to arrive at a meeting on Mondays at 5 pm, so you have to decide when you will start your trip towards the meeting place. сеа 1.9.2 Exercise 2 Goal: Do many random experiments and estimations. Identify the elements involved in making estimates and sources of variation. This exercise is actually a game. The ream that guesses the secret target most accurately wins the game. Students will form two teams. Each team will designate a dart thrower. Throwers will proceed to the front game area and get magnetic darts. A horizontal line with marks and labels every 2 inches is drawn for each pitcher on the board. The referee gives each pitcher a different position as their target. Those numbers remain unknown to everyone else. Each pitcher throws the projectile at the designated position in the line three times, and the referee marks each hit on the horizontal line. Vertical positions are ignored. Each team collectively guesses the target point for their pitcher. Guesses are plotted against number of pitches on the board. Five to 6 rounds of throws and guesses are conducted. The team that is closest to their pitcher's true target wins. After the award ceremony, the following questions are asked for discussion: 1. What factors determined the winner? 2. Was one of the pitchers better? In what way? 3. How would a team's guess change if their pitcher did a large number of throws? 4. What is the frequency of different distances from the true target? 5. Why do distances from the target vary among throws? 6.What does random mean?

Answer 1

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