A kid's toy store found that its quarterly sales of $1,000 can be adequately forecasted by...
A kid's toy store found that its quarterly sales of $1,000 can be adequately forecasted by the following multiplicative seasonal model.
Trend Component: T = 150 + 35t
Seasonal Index: Q1= .81 Q2= 1.09 Q3= .91 Q4= 1.19
Origin = Q4, 2012
Units (t) = Quarterly
A. Forecast sales for 2019
Homework Answers
From 2012 to 2018, 6 years have elapsed, which means 6*4 = 24 quarters.
So time index (t) for the 4 quarters of year 2019 are 25 to 28
Quarter 1, 2019 forecast = (150 + 35*25)*0.81 = 830.25
Quarter 2, 2019 forecast = (150 + 35*26)*1.09 = 1155.40
Quarter 3, 2019 forecast = (150 + 35*27)*0.91 = 996.45
Quarter 4, 2019 forecast = (150 + 35*28)*1.19 = 1344.70
Total sales forecast for year 2019 = 830.25 + 1155.40 + 996.45 + 1344.70 = 4326.80
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