following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of gasoline, in thousands, demanded at a local gasoline station. Also shown are actual demand levels in thousands of gallons:
Forecasts
week Method 1 Method 2 Actual Demand
1 0.90 0.80 0.70
2 1.05 1.20 1.00
3 0.95 0.90 1.00
4 1.20 1.11 1.00
The MAD method 1 = ??? thousand gallons... 2. The absolute deviatin based on the forecast developed using Method 1 adds to ??? thousand gallons. Mean squared error (MSE) is the average of (actual-Forecast). from the information given in method 1 , the value of n=4. the value E(autal-forecast) will be??? thousand gallons.
|
Method 1 |
||||
|
Week |
Method 1 |
Actual |
E |
E^2 |
|
1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.04 |
|
2 |
1.05 |
1 |
0.05 |
0.0025 |
|
3 |
0.95 |
1 |
0.05 |
0.0025 |
|
4 |
1.2 |
1 |
0.2 |
0.04 |
|
0.5 |
0.085 |
|||
MAD = sum of error/n
= 0.5/4
=0.125
MSE = sum of squared error/n
= 0.0.85/4
= 0.02125
|
Method 2 |
||||
|
Week |
Method 2 |
Actual |
E |
E^2 |
|
1 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.01 |
|
2 |
1.2 |
1 |
0.2 |
0.04 |
|
3 |
0.9 |
1 |
0.1 |
0.01 |
|
4 |
1.11 |
1 |
0.11 |
0.0121 |
|
0.51 |
0.0721 |
|||
MAD = 0.51/4 = 0.1275
MSE = 0.0721/4 = 0.018
following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of...