Expected Return, Variance, Std. Deviation and Cofficient of
Variation:
Magee Inc.'s manager believes that economic conditions during the
next year will be strong, normal, or weak, and she thinks that the
firm's returns will have the probability distribution shown below.
What's the standard deviation of the estimated returns?
Round your answer to two decimal places. For example, if your
answer is $345.6671 round as 345.67 and if your answer is .05718 or
5.7182% round as 5.72.
State of the Economy |
Probability of State Occurring |
Stock's Expected Return |
Boom |
30% |
22.05% |
Normal |
55% |
15.45% |
Recession |
15% |
–14.15% |
11.77% |
14.71% |
10.00% |
12.94% |
13.53% |
Answer :
Standard deviation of estimated returns is $ 11.77 %
State of the Economy |
Probability of State Occurring (I) |
Stock's Expected Return (II) |
Expected Return (III) = [(I)×(II)] |
Deviation(d) (IV) = [(II) - TOTAL (III)] |
Squared Deviation (d2) (V)=(IV)^2 |
Variance (V) × (I) |
Boom |
0.30 |
0.2205 |
0.06615 | 0.09060 | 0.00821 | 0.00246 |
Normal |
0.55 |
0.1545 |
0.08498 | 0.02460 | 0.00061 | 0.00034 |
Recession |
0.15 |
-(0.1415) |
-(0.02123) | -(0.27140) | 0.07366 | 0.01105 |
Total |
0.12990 |
0.01385 |
Portfolio variance = 0.01385
Therefore, Standard deviation = Sq. Root of Variance
= (0.01385)^1/2 = 0.1177 = 11.77 %
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