Question

Identify a time dependent variable in your organization, business, or industry. Collect several measurements of this variable over time.

Draw a scatter diagram of this variable versus time. What are your observations?

Do you see any trend in the measurements? Explain. Do you see any seasonal variation in the measurements? Explain.

Add a trend line to your scatter diagram, and determine the trend equation. Interpret the trend equation.

Purpose: To demonstrate the application of time series analysis in your organization, business, or industry.

Example: I work for an electric utility company. Over the years the demand for electricity has been growing constantly. The electricity demand measured in Megawatts is an example of a time dependent variable. When I plot the scatter diagram of electricity demand versus time, I see both an upward trend and seasonal variation. The upward trend is the result of growing demand over time. The electricity demand is high during the summer season, and is low during winter season. This pattern is repeated year after year.

Please write a unique answer

Answer 1

I have a shop of ice-cream parlor. The sold of the ice-cream is more in the summer season as compared to other seasons.

The below data shows the sold of the ice-cream during different seasons from the year 2014 to 2018.

Time	Ice-cream sold('00')
Winter-14	190
Spring-14	256
Summer-14	405
Monsoon-14	302
Winter-15	199
Spring-15	298
Summer-15	499
Monsoon-15	356
Winter-16	240
Spring-16	340
Summer-16	588
Monsoon-16	410
Winter-17	280
Spring-17	398
Summer-17	630
Monsoon-17	460
Winter-18	330
Spring-18	460
Summer-18	750
Monsoon-18	520

The above graph shows the seasonal effect in the sell of the ice-cream i.e. the sold is more during the summer and decreases gradually in another season then again in summer season the sold increases.

Also the sells increases due to the increase in the population.

The trend equation for this data is given by Y = 226.71 + 16.08X