Question

A certain unsavory bar for poker-playing dogs is attended by only two types of dogs: “good dogs” and “bad dogs.” For a randomly selected dog in the bar, the probability it’s a good dog is 40%. The probability the dog smokes, given that it’s a bad dog is 70%; the probability it smokes given that it’s a good dog is 25%.

a) You walk into the bar and observe a dog smoking a pipe (see Fig. 1). What the probability it is actually a good dog?

Answer 1