Question

In a 4-Alternative Forced Choice (4-AFC) test, a judge is presented with four beverages. Three are...

In a 4-Alternative Forced Choice (4-AFC) test, a judge is presented with four beverages. Three are the same and one is slightly sweeter. The Judge is instructed to pick out the sweeter one.

- What is the probability of performing a 4-AFC test correctly by chance?

- What is the probability of performing three consecutive 4-AFC tests correctly by chance?

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Answer #1

Probability of picking the sweeter beverage by change is 0.25

If 3 tests are performed consecutively and independently, the probability that all 3 tests are correctly done by chance

= (0.25)^3

= 0.015625

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