Question

Assume that the United States invests in government and corporate securities of Country K. In addition, residents of Country K invest in the United States. Approximately $8 billion worth of investment transactions occur between these two countries each year. The total dollar value of trade transactions per year is about $12 million. This information is expected to also hold in the future.

Because your firm exports goods to Country K, your job as international cash manager requires you to forecast the value of Country K’s currency (the “krank”) with respect to the dollar. Explain how each of the following conditions will affect the value of the krank, holding other things equal. Then, aggregate all of these impacts to develop an overall forecast of the krank’s movement against the dollar.

       a.   The U.S. inflation has suddenly increased substantially, while Country K’s inflation remains low.

       b.   The U.S. interest rates have increased substantially, while Country K’s interest rates remain low. Investors of both countries    are attracted to high interest rates.

       c.   The U.S. income level increased substantially, while Country K’s income level has remained unchanged.

       d.   The U.S. is expected to impose a small tariff on goods imported from Country K.

       e.   Combine all expected impacts to develop an overall forecast.

Answer 1