Question

The exponential smoothing model from part b, with α=0.1, yields a mean squared error of 14.3...

The exponential smoothing model from part b, with α=0.1, yields a mean squared error of 14.3 for this time series. If we set α equal to 0.05, the mean squared error is 15.9. If we set α equal to 0.3, the mean squared error is 10.5. Which of these three values of α (0.05, 0.1, 0.3) would be the most appropriate for predicting future weekly sales?

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Answer #1

SOLUTION:-

The answer is 0.3.

Because,

  • The littler the estimation of MSE is the best the model is.
  • From the given data 0.3 is having the least MSE is 10.5.
  • Finally 0.3 would be the most suitable for anticipating future week after week deals.
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