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According to the “January theory,” if the stock market is up for the month of January,...

According to the “January theory,” if the stock market is up for the month of January, it will be up for the year. If it is down in January, it will be down for the year. According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, this theory held for 29 out of the last 34 years. What is the probability that this will happen exactly 29 times in a sample 40 years? That is, if this process repeats itself many times, what is the probability of having a bull market 29 out of 40 years?

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