Question

During WWII, a Russian professor of statistics refused to go to the air raid shelter saying, "There are seven million people in Moscow. Why should I expect them to hit me?"

One night during a German attack, the statistics professor showed up in this local air-raid shelter--for the first time. He explained, "There are seven million people in Moscow and one elephant. Last night they got the elephant."

The statistics professor was aware of the mathematical probability of being hit by a bomb: it was the same (whether the elephant was hit or not). Nevertheless his degree of felt belief drove him to the shelter.

Past frequency can collide with degrees of belief when risky choices must be made.

When complete knowledge of the future/past is an impossibility--does calculating probability help in forecasting what an individual should do?

Calculating probability provides information about a population and provides estimates of risk to individuals within that population. Probability theory can provide an estimate of risk, and so provides certainty about an individual's actual future.

Calculating probability provides information about a population and provides estimates of risk to individuals within that population. Probability theory can provide an estimate of risk, but does not provide certainty about an individual's actual future.

Answer 1

Correct option:

Calculating probability provides information about a population and provides estimates of risk to individuals within that population. Probability theory can provide an estimate of risk, but does not provide certainty about an individual's actual future.

Explanation:

Calculating probability does not provide certainty about an individual's actual future because of uncertainties of pattern of events in future as compared to present conditions,