Question

Using the demand data supplied in the below table, please calculate the following from your company's forecasting perspective. Please use Excel to calculate your forecasting answers, so behind the cells in Excel, there has to be formulas for answering the below questions. Your company wants to forecast the demand for their product, based on the data below 

a) Calculate the simple four-week moving average for weeks 5 through 12 

b) Calculate the weighted three-week moving average using weights of 0.40, 0.40, and 0.20 for weeks 4 through 12 

c) Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for weeks 2 through 12 using an initial forecast of 4400 units and an alpha of 0.30 

d) Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast plus trend for week2 through 12 using an alpha of 0.10, delta of 0.20, a previous forecast including trend of 4600 units, a previous trend of 120 units 

e) Calculate the MAD and MAPE for all four of the forecasting models. Which forecast method do you recommend and why? 

Week	Demand
1	4500
2	4750
3	5400
4	5800
5	6250
6	6500
7	7000
8	7500
9	7920
10	8200
11	8500
12	8800

Answer 1