Question

only need help with bonus part

Part II: Problem 1 (20) A contractor must submit a bid proposal on one of three possible projects. Each project offers different profits and risks associated with wining the bid and actual profits from performing the work. For example, if the contractor submits a bid and wins, the predicted profit may range from high to low due to the uncertainty of site conditions (.e O, Good ,02-Fair, θ-Poor) The following table summarizes the costs to bid each project and the associated profits and probabilities with respect to winning each bid. Profit P) Profit PO 0.6 S3M 0.3 -$3M 0.5 DecisionPwin) Profit P Bid project 1 6 Bid project 2 3 Bid project 3 4 6 S6M $20M| SİSMI 0.3 Is5M | 0.3 t -SIM 0.4 0.1 0.25 SO |SSM | 0.25 a. Develop a decision tree model representing the above problem.(10) b. Using the Maximum Expected Value criterion, which project should the contractor bid if the goal is to maximize profit.(10) c. Determine the probability that the contractor will gain more than S5M in profit, [P(Profit> S5M)] , if the decision is to bid on each of the following projects: (Bonus 5) Project 1: P(Profit> S5M)- Project 2: P(Profit> $5M)- Project 3: P(Profit > $5M)

Answer 1

Solution i-() He asked only (Bonus 5 -ke iven \ata; GN 4- NOw - Condition D。 ís rndve than On

onl SM. So page Condihion

SM, So is move an abiuto ethi co Sile Condi hon °c