An offshore structure with a design life of 20 years is planned for a site where extreme wave events may occur with a return period of 100 years (i.e. the 100-year wave). The structure is designed to have a 0.99 probability of not suffering damage within its design life. Damage effects between wave events are statistically independent
(a) You found in HW 4 that the yearly probability of exceedance of the design wave height is p = 1/100 = 0.01. Here, using the information provided above and a r.v. for damage that follows a binomial distribution, find the probability of damage to the structure under a single extreme wave event (damage/exceedance).
(b) Using the damage probability (damage/year) that may be determined from your results of part (a), what is the probability of damage to the structure in the next 10 years assuming the occurrences of extreme wave events follows a Poisson process?
(c) How would your answer to part (b) differ had you assumed that extreme wave events follow the binomial distribution?
(a) here we use binomial distribution with parameter n=20 and p=0.01
for Binomial distribution ,P(X=r)=nCrpr(1-p)n-r
probability of damage to the structure under a single extreme wave event =P(X=1)=0.1652
( using ms-excel =BINOMDIST(1,20,0.01,0)
(b) Expected number=np=10*0.01=0.1, now we use poisson distribution with paramete =0.1
for poisson distribution P(X=x)=exp(-)^x/x!
probability of damage to the structure under a single extreme wave event =P(X=1)=0.0905 ( using ms-excel=POISSON(1,0.1,0))
(c) for extreme events ( when probability of events is very low) we should use poisson distribution...
An offshore structure with a design life of 20 years is planned for a site where extreme wave events may occur with a return period of 100 years (i.e. the 100-year wave). The structure is designed to...
**Knowing Problem 3, HW 4 is not needed** 1. Problem 3, HW 4 revisited. An offshore structure with a design life of 20 years is planned for a site where extreme wave events may occur with a return period of 100 years (i.e. the 100-year wave). The structure is de- signed to have a 0.99 probability of not suffering damage within its design life. Damage effects between wave events are statistically independent (a) You found in HW 4 that the...
**Note: You do not need to use problem 3 from homework 4 (what the question references in the beginning) all necessary information is provided 1. Problem 3, HW 4 revisited. An offshore structure with a design life of 20 me wave events mav occur with a return period of 100 years (i.e. the 100-year wave). The structure is de- signed to have a 0.99 probability of not suffering damage within its design years is planned for a site where extre...
4.29 A structure is designed with a capacity to withstand a wind velocity of 150 kph; i.e., any wind velocity up to 150 kph will not cause damage to the structure. In a hurricane-prone area, the maximum wind velocity during a hurricane may be modeled as an extreme Type / asymptotic distribution with a mean velocity of 100 kph and a c.o.v. of 0.45. (a) For a structure with the above wind-resistant capacity, what would be the probability of wind...