Question

In practice, a common way to value a share of stock when a company pays dividends is to value the dividends over the...

In practice, a common way to value a share of stock when a company pays dividends is to value the dividends over the next five years or so, then find the “terminal” stock price using a benchmark PE ratio. Suppose a company just paid a dividend of $1.35. The dividends are expected to grow at 13 percent over the next five years. In five years, the estimated payout ratio is 35 percent and the benchmark PE ratio is 25.

  

a.

What is the target stock price in five years? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.)

b. What is the stock price today assuming a required return of 11.5 percent on this stock? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.)
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Answer #1

Requirement (a). Target stock price in five years

Target stock price in five years = Earnings per share (EPS) in Year 5 x Benchmark P/E Ratio

Earnings per share (EPS) in Year 5 = D5 / Pay-out Ratio

Dividend per share in Year 0 (D0) = $1.35 per share

Dividend per share in Year 1 (D1) = $1.5255 per share [$1.35 x 113%]

Dividend per share in Year 2 (D2) = $1.7238 per share [$1.5255 x 113%]

Dividend per share in Year 3 (D3) = $1.9479 per share [$1.7238 x 113%]

Dividend per share in Year 4 (D4) = $2.2011 per share [$1.9479 x 113%]

Dividend per share in Year 5 (D5) = $2.4873 per share [$2.2011 x 113%]

Earnings per share (EPS) in Year 5 = D5 / Pay-out Ratio

= $2.4873 per share / 0.35

= $7.1065 per share

Target stock price in five years = Earnings per share (EPS) in Year 5 x Benchmark P/E Ratio

= $7.1065 per share x 25 Times

= $177.66 per share

“Hence, Target stock price in five years will be $177.66”

Requirement (b) - Stock price today

The stock price today is the aggregate of present value of future dividends and the price at the end of 5th year

Year

Cash flow ($)

Present Value factor at 11.50%

Stock price ($)

1

1.5255

0.89686

1.37

2

1.7238

0.80436

1.39

3

1.9479

0.72140

1.41

4

2.2011

0.64699

1.42

5

2.4873

0.58026

1.44

5

177.66

0.58026

103.09

TOTAL

110.12

“Hence, the Stock price today will be $110.12”

NOTE

The Formula for calculating the Present Value Factor is [1/(1 + r)n], Where “r” is the Discount/Interest Rate and “n” is the number of years.

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