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National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as...


National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: 

Month

Sales

(000)Units

Feb.15
Mar.18
Apr.12
May.20
Jun.23
Ju1.23
Aug -27


b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: 

(1)A linear trend equation.

(2) A five-month moving average. 

(3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .25, assuming a March forecast of 17(000).

(4) The naive approach. 

(5) A weighted average using.55 for August, .10 for July, and .35 for June.

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Answer #1

F= a b where Linear trend a y intercept ηΣty -ΣΣγ b ηΣ2 forecast -Σ12 Ey-b2t or y - bt b Slope a = n

b)

1)

t y t*y t*t y*y
1 15                15                      1                  225
2 18                36                      4                  324
3 12                36                      9                  144
4 20                80                    16                  400
5 23              115                    25                  529
6 23              138                    36                  529
7 27              189                    49                  729
28                138              609                 140               2,880
n 7
n*Sum(ty)             4,263
Sumt*Sumy             3,864
n*sumt2                980
(Sumt)2                784

b = (4263-3864)/(980-974) = 2.04

a = (138 - 2.04*28)/7 = 11.57

y = 11.57 + 2.04*x

For x = 8, y = 11.57 + 2.04*8 = 27.86

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