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National Scan Inc. sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as...

National Scan Inc. sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Sales (000) Units

Feb 19

Mar 18

Apr 15

May 20

Jun 18

Jul 22

Aug 20

b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:

SHOW WORKS!!!!

  1. (1) Thenaiveapproach.

  2. (2) A five month moving average.

  3. (3) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.

  4. (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a a March

    forecast of 19(000).

  5. (5) Alineartrendequation.

business   Operations-Management   
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Answer #1

b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following as shown below:

1. (1) The naive approach.

The naïve approach takes last period sales as the forecast for next period. Hence, the naïve forecast for September is 20,000 units

2. (2) A five month moving average1 Month Sales Forecast (5 month moving average) 2February19000 3 March 18000 4April15000 5 May 20000 6 June 1000 MA July 2200

Forecast for September using 5 month moving average is 19000 units

-----------------------

3. (3) A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.

xSUMPRODUCT(B6:B8,C6:C8) D9 1Month Sales Weights Forecast 2February19000 3 March 18000 Apri 15000 4 May 20000 0.10 June 18000

Forecast for September using weighted moving average is 20,4000 units

-----------------------

4.   (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.20, assuming a March forecast of 19(000).

alpha - smoothing constant Dt-demand of period t Ft- Forecasted value of period t 4 7 Month Sales Forecast 8 February19000 92 alpha - smoothing constant Dt-demand of period t Ft-Forecasted value of period t 4 7 Month SalesForecast 8 February 19000 9

Forecast for September = 19261.18 units

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5. (5) A linear trend equation

1 Month Month Sales 3 February 1 B3 C3 -C3 C3 19000 ВЗВЗ 4 March 2 B4 C4 -C4 C4 18000 B4 B4 B5*C5 -C5 C5 B5 B5 5 April 6 Ma1 MonthMonth Sales 3 Februa 19000 190003610000001 4 March 2 18000 360003240000004 5 April 45000 2250000009 6 Ma 4 80000 40000

or september x 8 forecast for september 16857.14+500 (8)

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