Question

Calculate the following forecasts using the data below.

1. For periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.

2. Calculate the three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4 through 10.

3. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data

4. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

Month	Demand
1	45
2	48
3	43
4	48
5	49
6	54
7	47
8	50
9	46
10	47

Answer 1

Answer

forecasting the data: a) exponential smoothing forecast a=0.4 months demand forecast error absolute ES a=0.4 error 45 48 43 48 49 54 45.00 44.20 45.72 47.03 49.82 48.69 49.21 47.93 -2.00 3.80 3.28 6.97 -2.82 1.31 -3.21 -0.93 total 2.00 3.80 3.28 6.97 2.28 1.31 3.21 0.93 23.78 46 47 b) three period moving average method: months demand forecast error absolute 3 MA error 45 43 48 49 mm + 100 N 0000 45.33 46.33 46.67 50.33 50.00 50.33 47.67 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.67 7.33 7.33 -3.333.33 0.00 0.00 -4.33 4.33 -0.67 0.67 total 21.00 50 46 47

c) weighted moving average (0.7, 0.2, 0.1) months demand forecast error absolute 3 WMA error 45 48 48 om +10 N 0000 54 47 44.20 47.00 48.20 52.40 48.60 49.80 46.90 3.80 2.00 5.80 -5.40 1.40 -3.80 0.10 total 3.80 2.00 5.80 5.40 1.40 3.80 0.67 22.87 50 46 47 d) calculation of mean absolute deviation MAD for * exponential smoothing forecast; (23.78/8)= 2.97 * three period moving average (21/7)= 3.00 *three period weighted moving average (22.87/7)= 3.27 (based on the forecast methods, I would select exponential smoothing. because, it's MAD value is smaller than that of other methods. thus, provide better forecast results.)

(Please like the answer it will encourage me.)