Calculate MAD and fill out table for the forecast:
Homework Answers
a)
| period | demand | forcast | forecast error=demand value-forecast value | absolute forecast error | regression | Reg_MAD |
| t | A | F | et=A-F | | et | | Rt | |A-R| |
| 1 | 54 | 54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 45.1276 | 8.8724 |
| 2 | 48 | 55 | -7.00 | 7.00 | 48.3882 | 0.3882 |
| 3 | 68 | 65 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 51.6488 | 16.3512 |
| 4 | 36 | 32 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 54.9094 | 18.9094 |
| 5 | 68 | 72 | -4.00 | 4.00 | 58.17 | 9.83 |
| 6 | 45 | 48 | -3.00 | 3.00 | 61.4306 | 16.4306 |
| 7 | 44 | 45 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 64.6912 | 20.6912 |
| 8 | 65 | 44 | 21.00 | 21.00 | 67.9518 | 2.9518 |
| 9 | 78 | 82 | -4.00 | 4.00 | 71.2124 | 6.7876 |
| 10 | 92 | 45 | 47.00 | 47.00 | 74.473 | 17.527 |
| 11 | ||||||
| 12 | MAD=Σ |et|/n = 9.40 | MAD=Σ|A-R|/n = 11.87 |
b)
forecast for period 11 ==3.2606*11+41.867 = 77.734
MAD for regression = 11.87
c)
No, because MAD is greater in case of regression
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