Please help with decision analysis In a certain state lottery, a lottery ticket costs $2. In...
Problem 13-27 (Algorithmic) In a certain state lottery, a lottery ticket costs $3. In terms of the decision to purchase or not to purchase a lottery ticket, suppose that the following payoff table applies: State of Nature Win Lose Decision Alternatives s1 s2 Purchase Lottery Ticket, d1 450000 -3 Do Not Purchase Lottery Ticket, d2 0 0 A realistic estimate of the chances of winning is 1 in 200,000. Use the expected value approach to recommend a decision. If required,...
Please help! The question is in the first picture and the questions in the second! 29 In a certain state lottery, a lottery ticket costs $2. In terms of the decision to purchase or not to purchase a lottery ticket, suppose the following payoff table (in S) applies: State of Nature Win Lose Decision Alternative Purchase lottery ticket, d Do not purchase lottery ticket, d 300,000 -2 Assignment: Lottery Problem, question 29, page 512, but answer the questions below instead...
In a certain state lottery, a lottery ticket costs $2. In terms of decision to purchase or not to purchase a lottery ticket, suppose that the following payoff table applies: State of nature Win. LoseDecision alternatives. S1. S2Purchase, d1. 500000. -2Do not purchase, d2. 0. 0A. A realistic estimate of the chances of winning is one and 220,000. use the expected value approach to recommend a decision. If required, round your answer to two decimal places. If the amount is...
Problem 13-01 (Algorithmic) The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature: State of Nature Decision Alternative 210 130 75 130 280 75 a. Choose the correct decision tree for this problem 210 210 di S1 S1 280 280 130 130 S2 130 130 d2 d2 75 75 di S3 75 (iv) 130 210 S2 210 di S1 130 75 S2 130 210 210 S1 di $1 130 75...
non excel solution, please! 6. Suppose that a decision maker faced with four decision alternatives and four states of natuure develops the following profit payoff table. State of Nature Decision Alternative S3 10 14 d1 10 d2 10 10 d3 13 10 8 d4 If the decision maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four states of nature, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative, and minimax regret approaches? ANSWERS: 1. D2 2. a) Al b) A2...
A payoff table is given as State of Nature Decision s1 s2 s3 d1 250 750 500 d2 300 - 250 1200 d3 500 500 600 a. What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? b. What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? c. What decision should be made under minimax regret? d. If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected...
2. Use the following table to answer a-d. The payoffs are in COSTS. Decision\ State of Nature S1 S2 S3 S4 A1 10 35 25 15 A2 10 15 45 10 A3 15 0 65 35 A4 30 30 10 30 Using different criteria identify, what is the best alternative and associated payoff? a. Optimistic criterion: Decision:________ b. Pessimistic criterion ______________________________ Decision:________
Chapter Four decision analysis worksheet Chapter 4-Decision Analysis Worksheet Quantitative Methods for Business Mr. Bell Emily and Ashley have decided to expand their business in a resort area by building condominiums, a restaurant/shopping complex, or a marina. The success of the development property will be dependent, in part, upon the growth of the surrounding county and the tourism it can attract. The women have estimated the following net payoffs after a year of operation. Condos Restaurant/Shopping Marina Fair 10 5...
2. A consumer electronics company is planning to introduce a new device. After careful consideration of costs, (e.g., there is a fixed cost of $5 million for developing the item), the projected state of the economy, etc., the marketing manager came up with the following payoff table (in $millions) Courses of action Event Market item Do not market item Introduction successful $50 -$5 Introduction not successful -$40 -$5 a. What are the decisions? b. What are the states of nature?...
Based on the cost of obtaining the sample information and its efficiency, is it worth obtaining it? Why? Please include ALL the relevant information for this decision and use specific numbers. Your answer must discuss EVSI, net EVSI (The EVSI minus the cost of the SI), the Efficiency of the Sample Information (abbreviated "E") and the Risk Profile. E U E (With Cost) U (With Cost) Decision using the Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) 13.2 (B) B 44 -29 39 -34...