Question

A hustler wants to play the Gambler’s Ruin game with you, in which you pay him...

A hustler wants to play the Gambler’s Ruin game with you, in which you pay him $1 if his coin comes up heads and he pays you $1 if it comes up tails. But you object when you discover that he will use a biased coin that has probability 2/3 of coming up heads. “I’ll be a sport and give you a big advantage,” he replies. “I will start with only $1 and you can start with $2. Whoever gets all $3 first can keep it.” Do you now have an advantage, even though you use his biased coin?

Find out by computing p1, where pi is the probability that the hustler wins the game starting with $i, for 0 ≤ i ≤ 3.

You are required to solve this using the following method: from a given position, condition on the outcome of the next coin flip.

Give an exact value for p1 as a simplified fraction. Do you indeed have an advantage in this game? Give a 1-2 sentence to explain your reasoning.

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Answer #1

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