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You have in your pocket two coins, one bent (comes up heads with probability 3/4) and...

You have in your pocket two coins, one bent (comes up heads with probability 3/4) and one fair (comes up heads with probability 1/2). Not knowing which is which, you choose one at random and toss it. If it comes up heads you guess that it is the biased coin (reasoning that this is the more likely explanation of the observation), and otherwise you guess it is the fair coin.

A) What is the probability that your guess is wrong?

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