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Rocession 9 5. Use the following information to answer the question assuming the equal probability of each scenario: Security
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Answer #1
Scenario Probability Return 1 [%] Return 2 [%] Deviation from mean d1 Deviation from mean d2 d1*d2 p*d1*d2
Recession 0.3333 -9 13 -19 6 -114 -38
Normal 0.3333 13 10 3 3 9 3
Boom 0.3333 26 -2 16 -9 -144 -48
a] Covariance = -83
b] Correlation coefficient = Covariance/Product of standard deviations = -83/(14.45*6.148) = -0.93
c] Expected return = 10*60%+7*40% = 8.80
d] SD of the two portfolio asset = (w1^2*sd1^2+w2^2*sd2^2+2*w1*w2*sd1*sd2*Cor(1,2))^0.5 =
= (0.6^2*14.45^2+0.4^2*6.48^2+2*0.6*0.4*14.45*6.48*-.93)^0.5 = 6.33
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