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Explain how EITHER Lucas islands paradigm or Friendmans fooling model generates possibility of cyclical fluctuations in
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Answer #1

Friedman's fooling model

According to the model, there exists an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment only in the short run. In the long run this relationship is not visible. This is because in the short run there arises a misinterpretation of rise in money wages as a rise in the real wages.

When the price level increases the unemployment decreases in the short run. The economy now seems to be in a phase of expansion. According to Friedman this scenario exists only for a short time p. When the people realise that the increase in wages is in nominal terms and not in real terms, the unemployment again falls back to the previous level. So again there will be contraction of the economic activities. Thus, there is a possibility of cyclical fluctuations in the economy as a result of changes to the price level.

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