SECTION A (50)
Read the case study below and answer the questions.
SHORT RUN STABILIZATION AND LONG RUN COMPETITIVENESS: THE LAVITAN
CASE
Growth of a young country
Latvia – a small, young country on the east coast of the Baltic Sea
– has recently earned the title of a ‘‘tiger’’. After gaining its
independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country embarked
upon a challenging road of transitioning from a planned to a market
economy. The first decade proved to be tough: the beginnings of
free market reforms were met by a harsh contraction of the economy,
and only in the mid-1990s the country began to grow slowly.
Inflation soared, especially in the first years of life of the
Latvian Lat (the local currency). A banking crisis struck in 1995
and the country was hit hard by the Russian financial crisis in
1998. The new millennium was thus met with an income per capita
level barely one sixth of the level of the rich European
countries.
Just as the country entered its second decade of independence,
though, things began to look rather optimistic. The economy started
growing steadily at 6-8 percent, the budget deficit was massively
reduced to desirable levels, and inflation was finally low.
External trade was growing steadily and gained ever bigger
momentum. The economy began to regain confidence in the banking
sector as it received more stringent regulation and supervision. In
2004, Latvia was officially admitted to the European Union along
with the other two Baltic States (Estonia and Lithuania) and
several other post-Soviet countries. Optimism culminated and growth
flourished: pegging the Lat to the Euro in 2005 with prospects of
adopting the Euro as the national currency fueled even more
confidence and encouraged more trade. The next few years after
admission to the EU saw double-digit economic growth, flagging
Latvia as the fastest growing economy in Europe. The banking
sector, dominated now by Scandinavian banks, unleashed massive
lending to businesses and households: the prospects looked good,
expectations were high, and consumer confidence was at its
peak.
The credit bubble continued to expand and the realization that it
was built upon unrealistic expectations for economic growth came
too late. The massive lending that took place in a matter of a
couple of years increased consumption, yet it did not equally
improve the future prospects of production. In late 2007 and in
2008, it became apparent that the economy was overheating.
The fall of the ‘‘Baltic Tiger’’
The fast growth of the economy created significant macroeconomic
imbalances. The consumption boom in the country built grounds for
the strong growth of imports, which led to a massive current
account deficit of a staggering 25 percent of GDP already in 2006
(Hansen, 2010).The overheating housing market was accompanied by
imbalance and tensions in the labour market as well. The demand for
labour in the booming economy was high, yet the supply was
decreasing due to large-scale emigration after joining the EU in
2004. Thanks to such pressure, Latvia hit another record number for
the EU: an annual wage increase up to 30 percent. The wage growth
by far exceeded productivity growth, forcing companies to increase
prices, leading to 17.9 percent y-o-y price inflation in May
2008.
As a consequence, Latvia’s currency sharply appreciated, sending
worrying signals about the decreasing competitiveness of the
country (Hansen, 2010). These large macroeconomic imbalances,
worries about sustainability of credit growth rates, inflation,
property price bubble as well as the high risk of deterioration in
the quality of loan portfolio motivated Scandinavian banks to
finally tighten the lending standards (Klyviene and Rasmussen,
2010). Once the credit from the Nordic countries froze and housing
prices started to fall, construction and retail sectors stagnated.
Pessimism replaced unwarranted optimism, negatively impacting
consumption and suppressing the entire economic activity (Hansen,
2010).
The ‘‘Baltic Tiger’’ crashed, and it crashed hard. The most rapidly
developing economy among the EU countries, experiencing a
double-digit growth of 12.2 percent in 2006, was shaken by the
steepest GDP contraction of 18 percent in 2009.Unemployment peaked
at 20.7 percent, consumption dropped by 22.4 percent and gross
fixed capital investments plunged by 37.7 percent.
In December of 2008, the IMF provided a e1.68 billion rescue
package to help Latvia fill in the gapping hole in its budget
deficit and calm its capital markets. Even though the injection may
have convinced the markets for a while, in June 2009 the Central
Bank of Latvia had to sell almost e1 billion in exchange of Lats in
order to defend the currency.
Is the government to blame?
Even though before the accession to the EU Latvia was undergoing a
period of intensive reforms, due to successful growth of the
economy the policy makers lost the urgency to reform as everything
already seemed to be heading in the right direction (Erixon, 2010).
Due to the currency’s peg to Euro, the monetary policy in Latvia
was restricted; hence the supply of credit was out of control.
Therefore, only fiscal policy tools could be used to regulate the
economy. It seemed, however, that instead of using this tool wisely
the government further fuelled overheating through massive public
spending (Klyviene and Rasmussen, 2010).
Tax revenues were growing as the economy expanded. Instead of
following the standard counter cyclical fiscal policy in a time of
favourable macroeconomic environment and decreasing fiscal
expenditure in order to accumulate a budget surplus, Latvia chose
to follow a pro-cyclical fiscal policy (Hansen, 2010). Government
spending relative to GDP increased from 35.6 to 37.7 percent over
2005-2007 (Karlsson, 2009). Not surprisingly, such pro-cyclical
fiscal policy increased the demand for credit, consumption and
supported the biggest boom in the EU. Excessive government spending
did not allow accumulating a budget surplus which could serve as a
buffer in times of crisis.
In 2007 the Latvian government adopted a ‘‘Stabilization plan’’
aimed at developing the budget surplus, reviewing effectiveness of
government spending and implementing reforms necessary for
increasing long run productivity and competitiveness (Gerhards,
2008). The plan came too late. By 2009 even the Latvian president
Valdis Zatlers was questioning the appropriateness of the actions
taken and the fate of the country: ‘‘We had no political will, we
lacked economic and entrepreneurial foresight, the government was
pathetic. Now we face the existential question: will Latvia
survive?’’ (Hansen, 2009).
Policy decisions today
A. Should the Lat be devalued. . .
For countries with a fixed exchange rate regime, devaluation is
roughly the only monetary policy tool that can be considered for
targeting economic stability. A deliberate devaluation of the Lat
would make the currency cheaper. Consequently, imports would become
more expensive and exports to other countries – cheaper, thus
reducing the trade deficit. By the end of 2009, the international
community was voicing a strong opinion that Latvia should devalue.
For some economists (including Professor Paul Krugman) it looks
like a case of Argentina: a fixed exchange rate, an excessive
current account deficit, substantial foreign bank lending, and a
burst of an overheated economy. They believe that there is no other
way for Latvia to regain competitiveness without a
devaluation.
Devaluation, however, might turn out to be very costly and may not
be as effective as intended. During the credit boom, Scandinavian
banks provided cheap capital with considerably lower interest rates
for loans denominated in Euro as compared to loans in Lat. As a
consequence, in 2008 around 70 percent of bank deposits and nearly
90 percent of loans were issued in Euro. Devaluation of the Lat
would thus pose a serious risk of insolvency.
B. . . .or should Latvia take the ‘‘hard road’’ instead?
As an alternative to external devaluation, Latvian politicians have
started to talk about an ‘‘internal devaluation’’: keeping the
currency fixed to Euro, but undergoing structural reforms to
improve productivity and public sector efficiency, and reducing
wages. While currency devaluation can happen overnight, internal
devaluation may take months or years of structural reform and may
lead to public unrest.
As a matter of fact, the government started to introduce austerity
measures already in 2007 12 percent (or 115) state schools were
closed, because budget financing was shifted from inputs-based
(number of teachers) to output-based (number of students). In 2008
the government abolished half of state agencies, which reduced the
number of civil servants by 30 percent. In October 2009, the
government slashed budget deficits to meet targets imposed by the
European Union for an additional e7.5 billion support package.
About 75 percent of the expenditure cuts were thus done in 2009,
bringing some positive hopes that austerity measures were carried
in time.
Internal devaluation, however, does not receive much public support
on the international level. The experience of Argentina seems too
painful: the society was making one sacrifice after another and was
slowly tortured by never ending public spending cuts and rising
unemployment. The country suffered a break-through of riots and
violence, consequently forcing itself into devaluation of the local
currency.
Moreover, in case of a successful internal devaluation, the economy
may be pushed into a vicious cycle of deflation, yet having no
option to increase money supply through monetary policy decisions.
Keeping the exchange rate fixed and facing a deflationary cycle
would be extremely hard to cure. Internal devaluation thus requires
a well thought-through policy and strong political will.
Thoughts on long run strategy: global competiveness is at
halt
As if instability due to macroeconomic imbalances were not enough,
the competitiveness of Latvia in the global arena looks gloomy as
well. As of 2010, the Soviet Union heritage is still deeply
embedded in the economy. Although many may be happy about the
progress the country has made since the regaining of independence,
there are many cracks in the foundations. Right after the break
down of the Soviet Union, national assets where privatized by
businesses (in most cases backed-up by foreign capital), which
usually used illegal practices and only later became legitimate.
The country still has not imposed a significant property tax or
progressive taxation, because the bargaining power of oligarchy has
been strong and the level of corruption has decreased only
marginally. Labour unions are just a nice expression, implying
little (if not nothing) when it comes to wage setting. Hence,
companies can cut wages rather freely. Finally, there are only a
few politicians who understand economic market forces. Many of them
have lived their lives under planned economy and have little idea
how the economy should be run under free market rules.
In 2009, Latvia ranked as the 29 out of 183 countries according to
the ease of doing business criteria (‘‘Doing business’’, The World
Bank, 2010), which was three positions lower as compared to 2008.
The ranking indicates that the business environment in general is
favourable and above the world average. Yet, Latvia still needs to
address several issues if it wants to join the ranks of the rich.
In particular, according to World Bank (2010), legislation relating
to investor protection, construction permits and employment
procedures seems to be of particular concern.
The Enterprise Perception Survey 2009 has pointed out that the top
constraints to investments in Latvia are tax rates, political
instability, tax administration, access to finance, informal sector
and inadequately educated workforce (‘‘Business environment’’, The
World Bank, 2011).
In addition, in 2009 Latvia ranked 45 out of 179 countries
according to the economic freedom index acknowledging the country’s
openness to foreign trade and the efficiency of entrepreneurship
regulations. Latvia is still perceived as a rather corrupt country.
In 2009, it placed the 69 position out of 203 in the world’s
Control of Corruption Indicator of the World Bank Group. In
addition, the country’s judicial system is relatively inefficient
and subject to long delays, and enforcement of intellectual
property protection laws is weak. These factors pose challenges to
Latvia’s economic freedom and long run competitiveness (‘‘Latvia’’,
Heritage, 2011).
Adapted from Vala, M; Drasutyte, K; Mazulyte, E and Daunys, L
(2012), Short Run Stabilization and Long Run Competitiveness:
Latvian Case, Emerald Emerging Market Case Studies
QUESTION 1 (25)
One of the main macroeconomic objectives of any country in the
World is economic growth as measured by the gross domestic product
(GDP) per capita from one year to the other. However, the fast
growth rate of the Latvia economy created significant macroeconomic
imbalances.
1.1 Discuss the costs and benefits for Latvia following the
transitioning from a planned to a market economy.
(10)
1.2 Critically evaluate the economic imbalances that Latvia economy
experienced and recommend the policy options that could have been
adopted in order to manage each of them. (15)
QUESTION 2 (25)
Assume you have been appointed as the Prime Minister of Latvia and
you understand that there is much to handle to stabilize the
economy and restore competitiveness, which has deteriorated
significantly over the last decade. Unfortunately, you have no time
to evaluate future prospects of the country – after the weekly
board meeting you have received a formal request from your advisors
that Latvia should carry out currency devaluation or an internal
devaluation.
2.1 Critically evaluate the type of devaluation Latvia should carry
out and recommend the policy options that could be adopted in order
to ensure a successful development path for Latvia in the long run.
(10)
2.2 Evaluate the critical constraints to investments in Latvia and
highlight how they pose as challenges to Latvia’s economic freedom
and long run competitiveness. (15)
1. In a planned economy, investment, production and other distribution related decisions are being taken based on economic plans and production plans. On the other hand, the decisions of investment, production and distribution in a market economy are being taken based on supply and demand related factors. As transitioning from planned to market economy, Latvia could save costs involved in overproduction and underproduction as the production takes place based on supply and demand. Moreover, as the demand in Latvia increases, due to probable tax cuts, high flow of money supply , the suppliers were not able to fulfill the demand and as a result, there arose a mismatch of demand and supply. It had resulted in increasing the prices and inflation and at the same high level of imports which had affected the economy negatively.
2. There was a high level of supply and demand mismatch leading to increased prices and high level of imports. This had happened due to tax cuts by the government and increased government spending leading to high level of consumption. Government should have made use of monetary and fiscal policy tools like increase in CRR and Repo Rate to bring down the consumer's consumption and demand. They should have raised the tax rates and thus reducing the disposable income in the hands of the consumers.
3. Latvia should devaluate the currency in order to promote exports. Moreover, the disposable income of the consumers should be reduced by increasing the tax rate, increasing the CRR and Repo Rate thus reducing the consumption level of the individuals.
4. Constraints to investments in Latvia:
Government doesnt support the investments much.
Labor cost is high
Stringent legislation related to investor protection, construction permits and employment procedures are not favorable for possible foreign investments.
As a result, the foreign firms are not interested in investments in Latvia, leading to lower economic development of the economy.
SECTION A (50) Read the case study below and answer the questions. SHORT RUN STABILIZATION AND...
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