Question

lul Clipboard Font Alignment Number B10 V Computers Sold 1035 013 261 od von Awn - 786 489 558 232 217 A Year 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 - X B Semester Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer 809 fx Summer C D E F Computers Sold Year Semester Computers Sold 772 2008 Fall 769 433 2009 Spring 466 2009 Summer 212 833 2009 Fall 799 445 2010 Spring 2010 Summer 218 2010 Fall 467 2011 Spring 518 223 2011 Summer 226 961 2011 Fall 887 490 2012 Spring 533 231 2012 Summer 235 1009 2012 Fall 922 509 2013 Spring 559 235 2013 Summer 244 1069 2013 Fall 986 524 2014 Spring 586 239| 2014 Summer 251 G Year 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 H Semester Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 238 865 603 247 890 633 251 961 20

he bookstore at the University of Southern Alabama is owned and operated by the university through an independent corporation with its own board of directors. The bookstore has three locations on or near the university campus. It stocks a range of items, including textbooks, trade books, logo apparel, drawing and educational supplies, and computers and related products such as printers, mice, and software. The bookstore has a program to sell laptop/notebook computers to incoming first-year students and other students at a substantial educational discount partly passed on from computer manufacturers. This means that the bookstore just covers computer costs with a very small profit margin remaining. The university has new students starting each semester; however, the fall intake is the largest. Each summer all incoming first-year students and their parents come to the university campus for a three-day orientation program. The students come in groups of 100 throughout the summer. During their visit the students and their parents are given details about the bookstore’s computer purchase program. Some students place their computer orders for the fall semester at this time, while others wait until later in the summer. The bookstore also receives orders from returning students throughout the summer. This program presents a challenging supply chain management problem for the bookstore. Orders come in throughout the summer, many only a few weeks before school starts in the fall, and the computer suppliers require at least six weeks for delivery. Thus, the bookstore must forecast computer demand to build up inventory to meet student demand in the fall. The student computer program and the forecast of computer demand have repercussions all along the bookstore supply chain. The bookstore has a warehouse near campus where it must store all computers since it has no storage space at its retail locations. Ordering too many computers not only ties up the bookstore’s cash reserves, but also takes up limited storage space and limits inventories for other bookstore products during the bookstore’s busiest sales period. Since the bookstore has such a low profit margin on computers, its bottom line depends on these other products. As competition for good students has increased, the university has become very quality-conscious and insists that all university facilities provide exemplary student service, which for the bookstore means meeting all student demands for computers when the fall semester starts. The number of computers ordered also affects the number of temporary warehouse and bookstore workers that must be hired for handling and assisting with computer setups and installations. The number of truck trips from the warehouse to the bookstore each day of fall registration is also affected by computer sales. The same process is repeated for the spring and summer semesters as well, although the volume of sales is much smaller. The bookstore student computer purchase program has been in place since 2002. In this time, the student population has grown and the academic and economic profile of the students has shifted.

Assignment ;;; Develop an appropriate model for bookstore management to use to forecast computer demand for the next academic year (fall, spring, and summer) and indicate how accurate it appears to be. 1. Use each forecasting technique listed below. ▪ Moving average ▪ Exponential smoothing ▪ Linear regression (with time period as the independent variable) Evaluate the accuracy of each method using the MSE, MAE and MAPE. Through trial and error, determine the best forecasting technique within each category and the best overall technique. In other words, you will need to experiment with different moving averages and different values of smoothing parameter α. Suggestion: Do not do this by hand! Use Excel and show results for different forecasting techniques. 2. Using the best techniques identified above, what is your forecast for computer sales in the next year? 3. Do you observe any patterns in computer sales from one year to the next? What might explain the variation from year to year? What additional information would be useful to the bookstore in determining future computer sales?

Answer 1

year	semester	Computers sold	year	semester	Computers sold
2008	Fall	769	2014	Fall	1035
2009	Spring	466	2015	Spring	621
2009	Summer	212	2015	Summer	261
2009	Fall	799	2015	Fall	786
2010	Spring	489	2016	Spring	558
2010	Summer	218	2016	Summer	232
2010	Fall	862	2016	Fall	809
2011	Spring	518	2017	Spring	580
2011	Summer	226	2017	Summer	238
2011	Fall	887	2017	Fall	865
2012	Spring	533	2018	Spring	603
2012	Summer	235	2018	Summer	247
2012	Fall	922	2018	Fall	890
2013	Spring	559	2019	Spring	633
2013	Summer	244	2019	Summer	251
2013	Fall	986	2019	Fall	961
2014	Spring	586
2014	Summer	251