Homework Answers
Let p1 = Probability of hypothesis H1 explaining an accident correctly when the accident occurs
p2 = Probability of hypothesis H2 explaining an accident correctly when the accident occurs
p3 = Probability of hypothesis H3 explaining an accident correctly when the accident occurs
p1 = P(H1 explaining correctly)*P(H1 occurs)
= 0.75*0.4
= 0.3
p2 = P(H2 explaining correctly)*P(H2 occurs)
= 0.8*0.5
= 0.4
p3 = P(H3 explaining correctly)*P(H3 occurs)
= 0.85*0.1
= 0.085
p2 is the highest among p1, p2 and p3
Hence the "most probable" hypothesis to explain an observed accident is H2
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